Look at it this way - it can’t be any harder catching passes from Vince Young than it was catching passes from Joe Ayoob.  BOOYA~

EDIT: The Hawk is going to be joining good old Hands of Stone in the Music City. Mike Heimerdinger loves him some Golden Bears!

While watching the NFL draft unfold last year and seeing all the puzzled looks on Mel Kiper’s face as he talked about how teams were reaching (according to…who?  A non-GM such as yourself?), I decided it might be instructive to study exactly how accurate the mock drafts are, especially since the guys making them purportedly have some inside information.  Of course, it may just be all smokescreens, but shouldn’t they be able to see through that?

Apparently not.  I compared the final mock drafts put up this year by the ESPN group of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Matt Mosley’s Hashmarks blog, ESPN Sportsnation, the SI.com contingent of Peter King, Don Banks, Dr. Z, local beatwriters via SI.com, and then the CBS Sportsline crew of Pete Prisco, Clark Judge, Charley Casserly, and Vic Carucci.

Some results:

• Mel Kiper completely whiffed on eight first rounders, meaning there were eight actual first round picks that he didn’t have going in the first at all.  The first one of those chosen was Gosder Cherilus at 17.  Hashmarks and Dr. Z whiffed on Jerod Mayo though, at tenth overall.  No one else whiffed on as many first rounders as Mel, with Charley Casserly doing the best by missing five.  Vic Carucci and the beatwriters coalition at SI.com missed six, and everyone else missed 7.
• Clark Judge was off by the lowest average amount on his picks - his picks were off by an average of 5.10 spots, and the beatwriters and Charley Casserly were off by 5.55 and 5.58, repsectively.  King was off by 9.39.
• Kiper came in with the most picks nailed right on, at 9.  The local beatwriters finished the worst at 4, and Peter King had 5.  Sometimes the more you think you know, the less you actually do.
• Dr. Z was the only prognosticator to pick even as many as the first four picks correctly.  Everyone except ESPN Sportsnation picked at least the first two picks correctly.  The collective wisdom of the masses is a load of BS.
• Still, those were the only top 10 picks that Dr. Z hit on.  Todd McShay got the most top 10 picks correct, with 6.
• Peter King had Chad Henne going at 20; he went at 59.  It took the longest for each of his projected first round picks to be selected, while Dr. Z’s first round picks were all taken when Malcolm Kelly went 51st, making for the shortest time for each of his projected first round picks to be selected.
• Everyone had Devin Thomas to the Bills at 11.  WHOOPS!~
• Everyone had Phillip Merling somewhere in the first.  That would merit a WHOOPS!~, but at least he was the first pick of the second round.
• No one had Joe Flacco, Sam Baker, Chris Johnson, or Duane Brown in the first.  And while we’re talking about Joe Flacco, honestly, how good can the guy be if the he himself came to the conclusion that he couldn’t beat out Tyler Palko?  We’re talking about Tyler Palko here.  Reading all these glowing reports about his arm strength makes me think of everything that led to Boller landing in Baltimore.  Which would be ironic, if only it weren’t just sad.
• Finally, ten of twelve mocks had THA1 going in the first.  Go Bears.  And Eagles!