Today, I’m going to follow up on my last post, where I was talking about what standards we should hold our basketball program to.  Now comes the part where I start throwing out names of basketball coaches.  Let the speculation begin!

(Cautionary note:  I am making all of this up.  I have no inside sources, and this exercise is just for fun.  It’s certainly more fun than watching our current basketball team lose by 21 at home to Wazzu, no?)

This post proved more difficult to write than when I first conceived it.  After all, how do coaching searches really work, anyway?  I don’t actually know.  Based on media reports surrounding other searches I have followed, they seem to focus on a short list of names (sometimes only one name!) from a few specific categories.  A few interviews are conducted, a favorite is chosen, and boatloads of money are tossed his way.  If the boat isn’t big enough, or he likes his current job too much to leave, the process is repeated.

So where does this short list come from?  Chances are, the finalists come from one of the following categories:
- Current assistant coaches
- Former Cal players/assistants that are successful coaches somewhere else
- Previously successful but recently unemployed coaches, often from the professional ranks
- Hotshot young assistants, often from the professional ranks
- Successful young coaches at mid-major schools, looking for a boost in prestige/paycheck
- Other coaches the AD knows personally from previous jobs, or are recommended from other ADs they know professionally (the Rolodex method)

From these various categories, I imagine that between dozens and hundreds of names are compiled, depending on the size and diligence of the ADs support staff.  From this list maybe five coaches will be interviewed, including one minority coach who may or may not actually be a serious candidate.

So, bearing in mind the fact that instead of having a rolodex and a support staff, I have Google and my own free time, here’s the list I came up with:

Current assistant coaches
Unless there’s a huge scandal or the current program is otherwise a complete disaster, assistant coaches are usually at least given interviews.  By promoting a current assistant, the program is kept relatively stable, and players are less likely to transfer somewhere else because they can’t work with the new regime.  However, current assistants often share of some of the blame for the previous head coach being fired, depending, of course, on what and how much responsibility was delegated to them, so there’s less likely to be a huge improvement over the status quo.  Promoting a current assistant is never a spectacular, sexy way to shake up a program, but it can be the right move, so an AD would be doing themselves and the basketball program a disservice by not at least considering such candidates.

Neither Gregg Gottlieb nor Mike Roberts have the kind of experience you’d be looking for in a head coach, but associate head coach Louis Reynaud has extensive experience with the Golden Bears basketball program.  This is now his 11th season as a Braun assistant, the last 6 as associate head coach.  I’d guess he has a hand in most aspects of the current basketball program, which at this point is both a good and a bad thing; certainly, his relationships with current players and potential recruits (and high school coaches) around the state would be valuable to retain.  I’m not saying he should be the next coach, but he should at least get a look.

Former Cal players/assistants that are successful coaches somewhere else
Often, when looking for a new coach, an AD will go looking for coaches with ties to the program, either as a former player or assistant coach, that have had success as a head coach somewhere else.  This sort of hire allows a program to retain some of the continuity of promoting an assistant, but will also net candidates with more head coaching experience and (hopefully) success.  Such candidates also often lack any connection to the recent failures of the program that led to the previous coach getting fired.

Of course, the best reason to go after one of these coaches is that occasionally, there might be a coach who is so successful that he would normally never consider taking over a team of such low fortunes, but because of his love for the university, he’s willing to leave his currently successful team to return home.

However, looking at former Cal players and assistants, no such candidate jumps out at you.

Joe Pasternak is in his first season as the Head Coach at the University of New Orleans.  He’s actually doing a heck of a turnaround job at the beleaguered school in his hometown, and may turn out to be a great coach.  Still, even if Cal were interested, I doubt he’d be willing to move on (and away from home) after only a year.

George Nessman is currently in his third season at San Jose State.  Though he’s been successful as a head coach before, he’s still got a ways to go to bring the Spartans back to respectability.  A coach with all sorts of Bay Area ties (including a long, successful stint at De La Salle HS) and a daughter currently attending Cal, I’d have to think he’d be interested if Cal were.  Plus, Wikipedia, that bastion of accuracy, tells me that his family is super-awesome, which immediately makes him an attractive candidate.

Charles Ramsey is at right about the same point as Nessman in turning around his current project.  However, Ramsey’s project is his alma mater, Eastern Michigan (he played in college for Ben Braun).  Very unlikely anything happens here.

Billy Kennedy, a former Bozeman assistant, is currently having some success as the head coach at Murray State.  Lots of small-school experience on his resume, but it’d be hard to see Cal hiring any reminder of the Bozeman era, even if he did help recruit Shareef and Tony Gonzalez.

Previously successful but recently unemployed coaches, often from the professional ranks
Just because they can’t hack it in the NBA doesn’t mean they aren’t good coaches.  Because these guys are down on their luck, ADs can often land better coaches than their program deserves, though they’ll always wonder if or when the coach will be looking to step back up to the NBA spotlight.  Dennis Erickson is the perfect football analogue; "great coach takes over a talented but underachieving team and takes them to new heights" is exactly the sort of story we’re all hoping to read about Cal on ESPN.com next January.

When I asked my fellow Golden Bloggers for names of potential coaches, TwistNHook responded helpfully with ‘Kelvin Sampson is available!’  Sure, that’s exactly the kind of coach we’re looking for.  Or, perhaps Todd Bozeman would like his old job back?  We’d just have to make sure he had a ready supply of Philly steak sandwiches…

Of course, the name everyone wants to talk about is Mike Montgomery.  Would I love to have him?  Sure.  Is he interested?  No idea.  But two years after the Warriors fired him, he’s still doing TV commentary, so he’s clearly looking around not just for any job, but the right job.

What everyone loves about Monty is that he’s got a long track record of success in the Pac-10, and there just aren’t that many coaches out there like that.  Beyond Montgomery, there’s John Wooden (clearly too old/broken), and maybe the loser in the upcoming Lute Olson/Kevin O’Neill power struggle down in Arizona…and that’s all I can think of.  You could lower your standards, and start naming guys like Steve Lavin, Henry Bibby, Rob Evans…clearly, just like lowering our standards, none of those guy are the answer.

Hotshot young assistants, often from the professional ranks
I’ll be honest - I couldn’t name a single assistant coach anywhere.  I just don’t follow basketball that closely.  I’ll rest assured that if there’s a great assistant out there who’s interested in coaching at Cal, Sandy will somehow hear about him.

Successful young coaches at mid-major schools, looking for a boost in prestige/paycheck
Almost every great coach started out somewhere small-time.  Montgomery was successful at Montana before taking over at Stanford; Ben Howland started out at Northern Arizona.  The advantage here is that ADs can often find the next great coach while they’re young, so if things work out, there might not be another coaching change for another 20-30 years.

Of course, some coaches can’t hack it in an ultra-competitive major conference.  Dan Monson was a highly sought-after coach while at Gonzaga in the late 90’s, but he was never able to duplicate that success at Minnesota.  After resigning in 2006, he now coaches at Long Beach State.

It at first appeared that Ben Braun would be the next coach to successfully make the leap to a major conference, and the initial returns were good.  If you’ll remember, Michigan even attempted to steal him away from Cal.  However, it appears now that Braun has hit his ceiling, and he’ll probably be remembered as a good coach who cleaned up a scandal-ridden program, but wasn’t quite good enough to compete in the Pac-10 on a regular basis.

So while the rewards are there, there are definitely risks in going after a guy who has never coached at this level.  Given Braun’s own past, some Bears fans may be somewhat gun-shy to go down that road again.  I don’t think we should be, but there it is.

Gonzaga’s Mark Few is one of those names that get bandied about whenever a big-time coaching position opens up, but at this point, it’s hard not to see Cal as at best a lateral move for Few, and more likely a step down.  Despite being stuck in the West Coast Conference, Gonzaga schedules like a high-major, and has the talent, exposure and national rankings to match.  Plus, he’s signed through 2016.

Saint Mary’s Randy Bennett, on the other hand, is the new hot coach in the WCC.  In his 7th year at SMC, Bennett not only has the Gaels aimed squarely at another NCAA at-large berth, but actually challenging Gonzaga for conference supremacy.  His team also managed to beat Oregon this year, something our Bears twice failed miserably to do.  He’s being mentioned for big-time jobs next year, and unlike the open Oregon State job, I think Cal would actually be a step up for him.  Certainly in pay and facilities, and almost surely attractiveness to recruits.  Heck, he wouldn’t even have to move!  (Although I don’t envy those who have to commute through the Caldecott Tunnel.)  

UNLV’s Lon Kruger currently sits third on Rival’s Top 10 Mid-Major Coaches on the Rise.  Here’s what they had to say about him:

Nobody on this list has a more impressive resume. Kruger became only the fourth coach to lead three different programs to the Sweet 16 when the Rebels beat Georgia Tech and Wisconsin in the first two rounds of the 2007 NCAA Tournament. Kruger also took Kansas State and Florida to the Sweet 16. At 55, some may question his age, but nobody can question his results.

They’re right; he owns a long and impressive résumé.  So, what’s he doing at UNLV?  Well, as I talked about two sections ago, the Runnin’ Rebels got him on the NBA rebound after the Atlanta Hawks fired him.  Things started off rocky (www.FireKruger.com was even activated for a time), but got much better after UNLV advanced to the Sweet 16 last year.  He’s probably looking to move back up to a major conference team at some point, and even though he’s not young, I’d certainly take 8-10 years of this guy.

The other west coast name on Rival’s list is Nevada’s Mark Fox.  Their thoughts:

If Fox leads the Wolf Pack to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, he might be mentioned among the best coaches in college basketball at any level. Fox has led the WAC program to four consecutive trips to the Big Dance. But, much of that success has been attributed to three-time WAC Player of the Year Nick Fazekas, who was a second-round draft pick. The Wolf Pack also lost starting point guard Ramon Sessions.

True, Fazekas and Sessions were great players, as anyone who saw Cal fall in the 2006 Pete Newell Challenge could tell.  Still, having two NBA draft picks on your roster does not guarantee success (see: Cal Men’s Basketball, 2007-08), and Fox has done a fine job without them this year; the Wolfpack currently sit at 19-10, a game out of first in the WAC.  Plus, if Cal hired him, Fox could annually face off against his old boss, Stanford’s Trent Johnson, who was the previous coach at Nevada.  Unsure if he’d be willing to leave, though; he turned down Nebraska just two years ago.

Who’s in first in the WAC?  That would be Boise State, led by coach Greg Graham.  In his 5th season, he’s got BSU on the verge of the NCAA tournament this year, somewhere the Broncos haven’t been since 1994.  Prior to this, Graham coached at Oregon, where Ernie Kent called him the "offensive guru" of some very good teams, including the "Luke 2 Luke" team that made the Elite 8.  Might be an interesting candidate to look at.

Utah State is also making noise in the WAC, and its coach, Stew Morrill, has certainly had success there, taking the Aggies to the postseason each of the last 8 years.  Morrill was born in Provo, Utah, and his bio describes him as "known for his deep-rooted values, consistency, hard work, dedication, honesty, integrity and concern for the welfare of his student-athletes."  Unsure if he’d fit in in Berkeley.

The big-time team in Utah, however, is nationally-ranked BYU, led by fourth-year coach Dave Rose.  A two-time conference coach of the year, his bio is full of coaching achievements in the state of Utah, but again, I’m unsure if he’d be interested in living in the hedonistic-communist state of Berkeley.

Finally, if you’re really grasping for candidates, San Diego’s Bill Grier is certainly having success in his first season as head coach of the Toreros.  Not much head coaching experience to speak of, but he’s got a long history of being part of success, as he spent the last 15 years as an assistant at Gonzaga.  Perhaps we’ll hear his name called for bigger jobs in a few years.

Of course, I limited my search to candidates on the West Coast, figuring they would be more likely to want to come to Cal, and possess more recruiting contacts around the state.  There are plenty of other highly qualified coaches at mid-major schools right now, and some are surely looking to move up to a major conference, but discussing all of them would take more effort than I care to exert.

Other coaches the AD knows personally from previous jobs, or are recommended from other ADs they know professionally (the Rolodex method)
Honestly, this can be kind of a wild-card category.  I couldn’t possibly attempt to research all the people Sandy Barbour has worked with over the years at UMass, Northwestern, Tulane and Notre Dame, and I couldn’t tell you which relationships were valuable and have been kept up.  Sometimes when ADs move on to a new job, they will hire someone that they helped hire to a previous job at the previous school, but there are no obvious candidates here.  Sometimes, a qualified candidate just appears out of nowhere, often as the result of an AD keeping up a contact with someone.

Wow, this post got a lot longer than I was hoping.  I hope it was at least interesting/informative.  Of course, coaching searches can take crazy turns, and my analysis could be spectacularly wrong.  For a cautionary tale, check out MGoBlog’s self-analysis of his own chronicle of minutia surrounding Michigan’s search for a new football coach.  Still, all this speculation at least gives me hope for next year.  That, and Spring football.  Mostly Spring football.