Humble Pie and Updated Bowl Odds
Apparently, I should run my posts by the guys over at ExcuseMeForMyVoice.com, because both Ken and Jason made some insightful comments on my post earlier today regarding Cal’s bowl chances, and as such, I’ve corrected/updated my bowl projections.
First, Ken pointed out that he thought a 10-2 Pac-10 team would be pretty much a sure shot for the BCS, at least assuming that they didn’t get shut out because a conference can only send 2 teams. While I’ve certainly felt that way about Oregon and USC, I’ve been ambivalent about Arizona State. I thought that, given their strength of schedule and low BCS standings, they couldn’t afford to lose again, certainly not at home to lowly Arizona. Ken has in fact written an entire post regarding this point, and I found it pretty convincing. Anyway, I made a minor change to my numbers to allow a 10-2 ASU to be BCS-bound, assuming either Oregon or USC aren’t also.
More damning to my argument, Ken pointed out a rule whereby all 7-5 teams must be placed in a bowl before 6-6 teams can be considered. I’ve often heard this applied to at-large bowl berths, and I assumed that that was what Ken was talking about. Jason then came back at me, explaining that, within the bounds of a conference filling out its contractual obligations, all teams with a winning record must be placed in a bowl before 6-6 teams may be considered, even for the purpose of filling out a conference’s bowl slots. Called out twice on this point, I went looking for some evidence one way or the other, and I found it here, on the NCAA’s own website (check page 9 of the associated PDF).
The upshot of all this is that the Big Game really DOES matter, bowl-wise. If Cal can beat Stanford on Dec. 1 (no gimmie anymore, by any means), there’s no way the Bears can be denied a bowl berth, as they would have to be placed in a bowl before a 6-6 Arizona. Moreover, a 7-5 Cal squad would have to be place in a bowl BEFORE either a 6-6 Arizona or a 6-6 UCLA (but not a 7-5 UCLA), despite either team having a better conference record, which means that the odds of landing in the Emerald Bowl are much greater than I stated earlier today.
In fact, let’s run down the odds now, as I have re-calculated them:
Emerald - 37% - Still the most likely destination after all, a Cal win in the Big Game plus two Pac-10 teams in the BCS virtually assures us of this.
Las Vegas - 27% - If you believe the Emerald would trade down with Vegas to grab Cal (and I’ve heard strong rumors, but nothing factual), you can add this number to the one above and arrive at a robust 64% chance of BARTing to the bowl game.
Armed Forces - 21% - As long as Cal takes care of business on the Farm, this is a worst case scenario. Even if they don’t, this is still a possibility, though not a strong one, as I had led you all to believe earlier.
No Bowl - 15% - Cal is not out of the woods yet. Still, if we fail to retain the Axe, this team probably deserves this ignominious fate.
I’m really not so sure why everyone seems to think the Pac 10 will get 2 BCS bowls…
Frankly, I think Oregon’s games from here on out are 50/50 at best. You just can’t say any game is a gimme when you’re out a starting QB, WR, 2nd WR, LB, 2nd RB (I won’t say Colvin/Johnson are ‘backups’ since they’ve been so fantastic and have played a ton), and starting LB. And when your QB is named Leaf. The game against UCLA could easily be a Dorrell special, and rivalry games are anything-goes as we all know. If they lose again they’re easily out of the top 14.
I think USC’s definitely out of the top 14 with a loss to ASU, and ASU could easily be dumped with a loss to USC. Couple Oregon losing with Hawaii wins over Boise and Washington and they might be left on the outside looking in. Though frankly, I think Oregon would get trounced by OSU in the Rose Bowl without all their weaponry.
Comment by I'm A Man! I'm 40! — November 20, 2007 @ 1:38 am
ASU is in the best shape; even if they lose to USC in a close game, beating Arizona should be enough to put them in the Territorial Cup. But you’re right, nothing’s certain.
Comment by Avinash — November 20, 2007 @ 4:02 am
We don’t deserve a bowl even if we beat Stanford. Cal should do the honorable thing and decline any bowl invitations. We need to do something dramatic to change the lovable loser mindset.
Comment by nonplussed — November 20, 2007 @ 8:33 am
Great find on the 2006 NCAA Bowl Rules. I googled and googled last night to find something official and couldn’t find it. Interestingly when I did a search for “2007 Postseason Football Handbook” just now google found a link to the 2006 edition but the link was titled 2007 so I guess used the 2006 for 2007.
Comment by Ken Crawford — November 20, 2007 @ 8:50 am
After watching the Washington game, I feel it’s unlikely we win Big Game. So, based on no actual calculations or studies or ouija boards, just my gut, the “No Bowl” option has a 60% chance.
Comment by CalBandGreat — November 20, 2007 @ 10:07 am