Crunching the Numbers
Without a game to analyze this week, I put together a spreadsheet with information (available here) about every Cal game played in the Tedford era and came up with some interesting facts.
- In the team’s 48 wins since 2002, the team has outgained its opponents by an average of 105.9 yards, with a 110.7 average margin in rushing yards, a -4.8(!) yard difference in passing yards, and an average turnover margin of 1.1.
- In the team’s 20 losses since 2002, the team has been outgained on average by -48.9 total offensive yards, with a -36.6 margin in rushing yards and -12.4 margin in passing yards. The team’s average turnover margin in those losses is -1.1.
- Cal is 39-4 when scoring 30+ points.
- Cal is 5-9 when allowing 30+ points.
- When allowing 20 or fewer points, the team is 28-0.
- Since 2002, the team has been ranked at every spot in the AP Poll except 24, 2, and 1.
- Cal is 10-11 against teams that are ranked at the time of the game.
- Against ranked teams on the road, the team is 4-8, with wins against #15 Michigan State, #12 Washington, and #16 Arizona State in 2002, and #11 Oregon last week.
- Tedford teams are 6-6 when both teams are ranked at the time of the game.
- However, Tedford teams are 3-11 against teams which ended the season ranked.
- The team is 35-5 when gaining 400+ yards on offense.
- The team is 13-9 when allowing 400+ yards on defense.
- Cal is 37-6 when outgaining opponents in total offense.
- As for those six losses, Cal has lost at least one game each season in which it outgained its opponent:
- 2002 Air Force (23-21, 335-317)
- 2003 Utah (31-24, 365-336)
- 2003 UCLA (23-20, 397-228)
- 2004 USC (23-17 in the original Reggie Bush "Pete Alamar Special", 424-205)
- 2005 UCLA (47-40 in the Maurice Jones-Drew "Pete Alamar Special Redux" game, 545-395)
- 2006 Arizona (24-20, 356-262)
- The total yardage margin in these games? 113.2 yards. You may notice that that figure is higher than the average margin in Cal victories. Small sample size, I know. But God bless Pete Alamar.
- Cal is 11-14 when the team is outgained, though interestingly, the average score in those games is Cal 27.8, Opponent 27.6.
- And finally, Cal is 27-7 at home since 2002, and 5-2 against ranked opponents at home. So let’s hear it for that homefield advantage. Go Bears.



