Wait a minute, you’re BLACK?  Get outta here!

 

Ragnarok: Last year, Oregon rolled to a 4-0 record, including a controversial victory over Oklahoma, and a national ranking in the teens before its late September showdown with Cal.  However, the Bears unveiled uniforms even uglier than Oregon’s en route to embarrassing the Ducks.  Cal exposed Oregon in general and QB Dennis Dixon in particular, and Oregon fell off the national radar, eventually landing with a thud in the Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl, where they were thrashed by BYU.

So, the obvious question is:  how is this year’s Oregon team any different?  Is Dixon more mature?  Is RB Jonathan Stewart more consistent and less injury-prone?  Can the Ducks play defense against an above-average offense?  Will we ever get to see Ryan Leaf’s little brother again?

And, most importantly, will Jeff Tedford finally get his first victory in Autzen Stadium?

 

TwistNHook: It is specious logic to say that because we thrashed them last year, we’ll do the same this year.  One needs only look as far as the Tennessee matchup to see how much can change over the course of one year.  I sure hope that this game is similar to last year’s game, but circumstances are very different.  Most notably, now Oregon has the home field advantage.

While I don’t expect a blowout, I just hope for a win.  Many people predict this will be a shootout.  It’s tough to disagree with that.  So, then you have to wonder, who has the better offense?  If Longshore can build off of the highly successful first quarter from Arizona, I like Cal’s chances.  We all know that Forsett is one of the best backs in the Pac10 right now.  We all know that our RB depth is spectacular.  We all know that we have 3 great WRs.  We all know that we have 2 solid to great TEs (and man do I like Morrah going forward).  We even know that our offense can be aided by DeSean returning punts or just causing the punter to kick poorly.  The missing link is Longshore.

Looking at his blog, he hasn’t updated in weeks.  Looking at his Facebook mini-feed (stalker-alert!), he hasn’t affirmatively done anything in a while.  He’s just been tagged in some photos, which is passive.  Looking at his Wall, there isn’t a new post in a long while, more evidence he hasn’t done anything affirmative that would cause somebody to post on his wall.  Let’s hope all this time NOT spent on various electronic distractions is being spent on passing, passing, passing.

If Longshore can be the QB we all know he can, there is NO stopping this offense.  Unfortunately, we haven’t seen that on a consistent basis yet.  No better time to start than this Saturday.

 

Hydrotech: There are a lot of similarities between this year and last year.  I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if the outcome is the same.  Cal has played Oregon tight the last 2 times the game was in Eugene despite Cal having inferior teams.  Very convincing arguments can be made that Cal should have won both previous matchups in Eugene too.  I’m thinking Cal finally beats the ducks in Eugene.

 

TwistNHook: I sure hope you are right there, Hydro.  From my vantage point, we’ve had some problems getting consistent pressure on the opposing QBs this year.  Perhaps my view is colored by our most recent game where it seemed Tuitama had endless amounts of time to throw.  But getting consistent pressure on Dixon seems key.

Too bad Follett looks to be out.  He would be perfect for this.  Just another reason why this game might be a shootout.

 

Hydrotech: I think there must be consideration to the idea that Cal’s defense plays the run first and not the pass.  Thus, we may not be getting immediate pressure on the opposing QB from our defensive line not because they are unable but because it is their second priority.  When Mebane was interviewed at Seattle Seahawks training camp prior to this season, he remarked something along the lines of having the chains taken off of him and being allowed to finally truly pass rush the QB.  The common inference from that remark was that Cal asked him to play the run and maintain the gaps rather than shooting the gaps for a quick sack. 

In fact, if my memory serves me correct, I believe Gregory has made a few remarks to confirm the fact that his ideologies orbit the philosophy of stopping the run first and foremost.  Evidence of this comment was often seen last year with Gregory leaving our CBs on their islands and dropping safeties in the box for run support.  Most notably against Tennessee last year which resulted in Tennessee taking their chances against Syd and his one arm rather than Dante (yes, he spells it with an "A" and not an "O", let’s get it right people) and his uncanny ability to intercept footballs and nuclear missiles. 

Furthermore, Cal’s "apparent" inability to get pressure on the QB stems from the fact that Gregory doesn’t blitz a lot (usually), and just releases linebackers into zones.  Thus puts full responsibility on the defensive line (usually just four men and sometimes three) to muster a pass rush against 5 or 6 blockers.  Now, I suck at math but 3-4 rushers versus 5-6 blockers doesn’t sound like good odds.  I mean, if our DLine consisted of The Freak, Warren Sapp, Bryant Young, and Leonard Little and similar types then that’s different.  But otherwise I think our lack of QB pressure is justified based on Gregory’s ideologies. 

Against Oregon, the trouble is also going to be containing Dixon when he drops back to pass.  Reckless pass rushing can open up escape lanes.  The DLine must attack with the precision of a laser guided bomb (and yeah, I guess that’s a bad analogy because some of those "smart" bombs are about as dumb as a rock and blow up things miles from the target).  More specifically, I think our DEs must be careful to not rush upfield too much on their pass rush and take themselves out of the play.  If we don’t blitz, then we must contain.  If we blitz linebackers, then we must get the sack.

 

Ragnarok: That sounds like the game plan from last year.  First and foremost, we were able to take Stewart and running game out of the equation.  Only 70 yards on the ground all game.  We then forced Dixon to beat us with his arm, and he responded poorly, throwing 3 interceptions, including one on the first play from scrimmage.  Sounds like a recipe for success, right?

Well, it might not be so easy this time.  Stewart has been hampered by injuries his entire career, including much of last year, but he appears to be healthy now.  Even worse, Dixon has improved his decision making; in fact, he hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year.  Playing at Michigan didn’t rattle him the way the nighttime crowd seemed to in last year’s Cal game, and now he gets to play us at home.  Even if we take away other options and make Dixon beat us, I think there’s a good possibility he may be up to the task.  After all, it’s gotta be easier than hitting minor league pitching, right?

 

Yellow Fever:  I’m willing to admit that Dixon looks much improved.  But I’m also going to say that I don’t think he’s faced serious pressure from any defense so far, or at least not the kind of pressure that can force him into bad mistakes the way he was last year.  He probably won’t have the same kind of breakdown, but I think that if our Bears are able to slow Stewart down and force Dixon to win through the air, he’s liable to make enough mistakes that our Bears pull this one out.  And I really don’t buy that quarterbacks do demonstrably worse on the road than at home.  I don’t know from experience, but I doubt that having the home crowd behind you on offense deliberately being quiet can help you that much - conversely, playing at home and getting jeered for another bad play?  Ask Rex Grossman or Joe Ayoob how that feels.

What this boils down to is my belief that Dixon hasn’t shown me enough (yet) to prove that he deserves the benefit of the doubt.  He may yet carve up our defense for 500 yards, but let’s not forget our Bears have playmakers too, and DeSean’s thumb has to be getting better by now, doesn’t it?  It’s just a shame that Money isn’t around to posterize Patrick Chung again.

 

Ragnarok: Still, I don’t think we can discount homefield advantage entirely.  Being on the road may not cause you to make bad decisions, but it will hamper your abililty to communicate with the rest of your offense.

Much is being made of the homefield advantage that Autzen provides, especially the fact that, (according to Wikipedia) due to its unique acoustics, it holds the record as the loudest stadium in the country (set at last year’s Oklahoma officiating debacle).  And having been there twice, I can say that between there and the Tennessee game last year, it’s the loudest I’ve ever heard a football crowd.

Much is also being made of the fact that Cal has not won at Oregon since 1987, twenty years ago.  However, as Tedford astutely pointed out, many of his players were not even born in 1987.  Those results have nothing to do with this team.  And as for Cal’s general failure to win at Autzen, I’d have to say that that probably has more to with Cal fielding lots of crappy teams over the years than anything else.  Because of weird scheduling, those twenty years only encompass seven losses, and none of Cal’s best teams during this time (’91, ‘93, ‘04 and ‘06) went to Oregon, instead getting them at home or skipping them entirely.  Overall, this "streak" is nothing more than a useless factoid.