I don’t know how many of you actually saw the basketball game Saturday night at Oregon (given that it was on Comcast Sports Net, I’d guess not too many of you), but if you missed it, you missed a pretty good game.  Not Colts-Patriots good, but still pretty entertaining.  You may have also missed an important step forward for these Bears.

No, Cal did not win the game.  But there’s no shame in losing to the 9th ranked team in the country on the road.  What’s important is the way in which they lost.  Cal, with a smaller lineup that only nominally runs 9 deep (only 7 guys played more than 9 minutes, and 4 played 30 or more) not only hung with these Ducks, playing at their typically blistering pace, but they took at 8 point lead into halftime.  And it wasn’t like the Ducks were asleep and letting the Bears win.  No, for 20 minutes at least, Cal looked like they could hang with any team in the country.  They were hitting their shots, playing tough D, and outrebounding their taller opponent.

Of course, the second half didn’t go so well as Cal started to tire.  Passing lanes opened up on defense, and shots that went in in the first half were just off the mark in the second.  However, unlike the DePaul game a month ago, when Oregon went on a run, the Bears didn’t fold like a cheap lawn chair.  They fought back, kept the game close, and won the rebounding battle for the third straight game.

This coming week, Cal gets UCLA and USC at home, and both are going to be tough games.  I can’t imagine Cal would be favored in either contest, but I feel better about this week than I did before Saturday.  Cal is a good team; not a great team, but a good one.  They shoot the ball very well, both from the line and beyond the arc, and they’re starting to make up for in hustle what they lack in size.  And now, they’ve shown that they can hang with a better team on the road.  Do that often enough, and upset wins will follow.

Since Mark Schlabach and Stewart Mandel have redone their early top 25 rankings for the year, I guess I will too.

Schlabach’s Top 25:

1.  USC
2.  Michigan
3.  West Virginia
4.  Wisconsin
5.  Oklahoma
6.  Virginia Tech
7.  Texas
8.  Florida
9.  California
10.  LSU
11.  Louisville
12.  Arkansas
13.  Rutgers
14.  Ohio State
15.  Texas A&M
16.  Georgia
17.  Penn State
18.  Nebraska
19.  TCU
20.  Auburn
21.  Tennessee
22.  Boise State
23.  UCLA
24.  Wake Forest
25.  Alabama

"Why: Despite losing Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year Marshawn Lynch, the Bears return a plethora of skill players on offense. DeSean Jackson is a big-play threat at receiver and punt returner. Quarterback Nate Longshore was much-improved in his first season as a starter, and Justin Forsett and freshman James Montgomery are in line to replace Lynch.

Why not: For starters, the Bears open the 2007 season against Tennessee and must fare better than in the ‘06 opener against the Vols. Cal must replace all its key parts on defense — tackle Brandon Mebane, linebacker Desmond Bishop and cornerback Daymeion Hughes. The transition will be easier if the NCAA grants another year of eligibility to cornerback Tim Mixon, who missed all of 2006 with a knee injury."

Weren’t we 9th, and Tennessee 21st, to start last year?  That didn’t work out so well.  That said, these rankings make quite a bit more sense to me, because they seem to take into account the fact that LSU and Florida are breaking in new QBs and shouldn’t be in the top 5 because of that fact.  Do they have that potential?  Yes.  But there are too many questions there.  As far as how we managed to move up in Schlabach’s rankings even though Marshawn left, that’s almost entirely due to the fact that the teams that had been ahead of us were hit hard with players of their own leaving early.  Ohio State, I’m looking at you! 

Mandel:

1.  USC
2.  LSU
3.  Florida
4.  Louisville
5.  West Virginia
6.  Michigan
7.  Wisconsin
8.  Texas
9.  Ohio State
10.  Virginia Tech
11.  Auburn
12.  Oklahoma
13.  Rutgers
14.  Boise State
15.  Penn State
16.  Arkansas
17.  Tennessee
18.  Nebraska
19.  Georgia
20.  Boston College
21.  South Carolina
22.  California
23.  Alabama
24.  UCLA
25.  South Florida

"Who’s back: QB Nate Longshore, RB Justin Forsett, WR DeSean Jackson.
Who’s not: RB Marshawn Lynch*, LB Desmond Bishop, CB Daymeion Hughes.
Skinny: Jeff Tedford’s powerful offense won’t miss a beat even without Lynch, but the defense loses nearly every key starter, including All-America Hughes."

Again, I don’t feel like the parts that we lost on defense last year are irreplacable.  After all, we were 90th in the country in total defense at 367.7 yards per game (8th in the Pac-10), and 44th in scoring defense at 20.1 ppg (4th in the Pac-10).  Obviously, Hughes and his 8 interceptions will be missed, as he probably prevented at least an average of 2 points a game on his own via those turnovers, but can the defense give up less than 367.7 yards a game, even with Bishop, Mebane, and Hughes gone?  I’d like to think so.  90th is pretty abysmal.  The point, our defense just wasn’t that good last year to begin with.

Basically, I don’t think we should be as high as 9th,  but I don’t think we’re down below the likes of Boston College and South Carolina either.  As I said before, somewhere between 12-15 seems appropriate to start next year, although I do believe if Longshore matures as quickly as previous QBs under Tedford, we have the potential to be much better than that.