Bubble Boys
This season hasn’t exactly gone as planned for the Cal men’s basketball team, but it hasn’t gone sour yet. Despite the injuries, the Bears still have a fighting chance to make the postseason dance, though it won’t be easy. While Joe Lunardi’s bracket does not currently contain the Bears, they do find themselves squarely in the bubble discussion. They have an RPI of 42 and a strength of schedule of 15, numbers that, if they hold up, will certainly merit NCAA discussion, if not guarantee a bid.
The Pac-10 is exceptionally tough this year, with 8 of the teams having an RPI in the top 80, and UCLA and Arizona holding spots No. 1 and 2, respectively. That toughness means that the Bear’s RPI and SOS numbers are likely to remain high, but it also means wins will come at a premium, especially on the road. No game is a gimmie; even bottom-feeding Arizona State, winless in the Pac-10, took Cal to overtime in Tempe. To get to the tournament, the Bears will have to get all the games that they’re supposed to win and steal a couple that they’re not.
That, of course, leads us to this week’s road trip to the Oregon schools. It has all the makings of a classic road split. Tonight’s game against the Beavers is definitely winnable, while Saturday’s contest against the No. 9 Ducks may very well not be. If the Bears have serious postseason aspirations, OSU is a must-win. Not only do they need to get every win they can, but they can’t afford a bad loss (OSU has an RPI of 176), even on the road. It’s the sort of game that good teams get because they can play consistently, whereas mediocre teams, despite their talent, might get caught looking ahead to a top-ten team on Saturday.
Of course, if the Bears can take down the Ducks at Mac Court, it would be the sort of résumé headliner that the selection committee loves to see. But that’s on Saturday, and we shouldn’t get caught looking ahead either. A sweep would be golden, but a shutout would be devastating, and a split sounds just about right.
