Yep, we’re pretty much back where we started.  Just looking at the AP top 14 (an arbitrary number chosen to include Cal, but then, 25 is a rather arbitrary number) and comparing it to the preseason rankings, the voters got 11 out of 14 correct.  They missed on Notre Dame, Florida State, and Miami, who have been replaced by Boise State, Wisconsin, and Rutgers.  Yeah, we all saw that coming.

Final AP Poll
 1. Florida (64) 13-1 1,624
 2. Ohio State 12-1 1,492
 3. LSU 11-2 1,452
 4. USC 11-2 1,389
 5. Boise State (1) 13-0 1,383
 6. Louisville 12-1 1,338
 7. Wisconsin 12-1 1,288
 8. Michigan 11-2 1,145
 9. Auburn 11-2 1,112
10. West Virginia 11-2 1,035
11. Oklahoma 11-3 933
12. Rutgers 11-2 884
13. Texas 10-3 772
14. California 10-3 697

Preseason AP Poll
 1. Ohio State (35) 0-0 1,558
 2. Notre Dame (10) 0-0 1,470
 3. Texas (8) 0-0 1,411
 4. Auburn (3) 0-0 1,395
 5. West Virginia (6) 0-0 1,354
 6. USC (3) 0-0 1,345
 7. Florida 0-0 1,178
 8. LSU 0-0 1,144
 9. California 0-0 975
10. Oklahoma 0-0 960
11. Florida State 0-0 949
12. Miami (FL) 0-0 893
13. Louisville 0-0 844
14. Michigan 0-0 824

Boise State started at No. 31 (behind UCLA), Wisconsin at No. 33, Rutgers at No. 38, getting a measly 7 votes in the preseason poll.  Meanwhile, in the final poll, Notre Dame finished ranked No. 17, and both Kentucky and San Jose State got more votes than both Florida State and Miami combined (1).

Now, while BSU, UW, and SUNJ all qualify as surprises they all did get preseason votes, which means that someone, somewhere saw them coming (at least to a degree).  The only true surprise of the season is Wake Forest, who finished at No. 18 while getting no votes in the preseason in either poll (Oregon State, finishing No. 21, did get 2 votes in the preseason coaches poll).

So, the question is, are we to be surprised by the lack of surprises?  Are the voters really that good as prognosticators?  Well, maybe.  They are pretty good (as a group) at predicting the final finish, but some of that has to be considered a self-fulfilling prophesy.  The good teams are the good teams and will always be the good teams, at least in the minds of the public.  Looking at the preseason poll, only West Virgina, Cal, and Louisville aren’t considered ‘traditional’ powers, and it took all three several seasons of extended success to break into this stratosphere.  Meanwhile, as bad as Florida State was this year, if they start next year 3-0, they’ll be right back up here.

I’m not decrying the system, and I’m certainly not defending it.  I’m just pointing out some ‘interesting correlations’.  Take them for what you will.  All I’m saying is, Cal better be ranked in the top 15 when next year’s preseason poll comes out.

 < Update 2007.01.10 > ESPN’s Mark Schlabach puts us at No. 10 in his very early preseason rankings for 2007.  Go Bears!